The key argument advanced by the proponents of electric vehicles is that they greatly reduce CO2 emissions. However, this doesn't seem substantiated, and this has major public policy implications.
ICE engines are at the peak of their development and as they are phased out,all of those wonderful engineering skills will be lost. This is the great tragedy of this forced transition.
Interesting analysis but I disagree with the methodology and, thus, the conclusion. There are downstream emissions in EV production - but those will diminish greatly over time. American Lithium producers are already focused on emission-free, geothermal extraction and production in Imperial County, Calif. which, if successful, would be a strong model for others. The U.S. Department of Energy is investing heavily in battery recycling, too, so that also reduces downstream emissions by eliminating the need to re-do the lithium and graphite production process from scratch. As well, EV charging companies like Electrify America and EVgo are investing in production of one unit of renewable energy for each unit of electricity they use to charge EVs, so investment in Electric Vehicles also becomes a major, new investment in renewables. Once you factor all of these points into a methodology, it changes the result.
Greetings. Thanks for the feedback. I think I address this in the last section. Here are key excerpts:
"Of course, there are promises of more efficient batteries, solid state batteries, less heavy batteries, less fire prone batteries and other improvements. Lots of work is being done towards that. But there is no proof these promises will materialize any time soon, and that the scale of the improvements will be sufficient."
"Actually, there are also lots of improvements that can still be made to ICE vehicles, to further reduce their consumption and footprint."
Yes and that's great - good points. I just disagree and believe, with the massive public and private sector investments (hundreds of billions of dollars now, today), it's not just a "down the road" thing. The production of renewable energy - paid for by the EV ecosystem I mentioned - is real and quantifiable right now, today. It's tangible. It's hundreds of GWh a year in the U.S. alone. But it's not in any methodology that reaches your conclusion. Again, I think you did a lot of interesting work and it's worthwhile to consider I just disagree.
Another consideration is that 75% of Americans buy a used car. With the average used car age of 12.5 years old, that puts many electrics at requiring a new battery by then. Very few car buyers will thus purchase an electric at 12.5 years. So this limits the sale of electrics as only brand new cars, and the market then would limit electrics to the 25% who do buy new. Of course as always, new battery technology could change this. To sum up, with current technology probably only 10-15% of new car buyers will ever buy electric, so what have we gained?
I Googled it, and many sources confirm those figures. I have a friend in the automobile industry, he says that in 10-15 years when the current crop of electric cars will need battery replacement, that will be the end of the electric car industry. Of course, if new battery technology comes along, that could change. I think the battery life has to be 20 years for electric cars to be sustainable, and participate in the used car market.
Thanks, I believe it's a valid point, using logic and reasoning, who would purchase an electric car if they suspected the battery could die soon? And we know that no dealer would warranty a car like that.
Whether we like it or not the agenda is to push EVs on us. The horse has already bolted. In Australia with the biggest selling sedan now, Tesla. Have you noticed the price of fuel and cars? This will continue to make it difficult for people to drive cars—and that is the point. Only the well off will be able to buy EVs.
Of course this is based on a premise pushed by the globalists and politicians, that we are in the midst of catastrophic “climate change”. The data does not bear this out as severe storms have not increased the past 100 years and deaths from weather-related events are way down. Atmospheric physicists and climatologists like Judith Curry and Richard Lindzen point this out repeatedly, and the fact that average temperatures are skewed by the Urban Heat Island Effect.
One other factor: global population will start declining later this century due to rapidly declining birth rates which means less energy consumption. The same way that we turned our world upside down with Covid policies will happen with the push to net zero,
Very interesting article.
ICE engines are at the peak of their development and as they are phased out,all of those wonderful engineering skills will be lost. This is the great tragedy of this forced transition.
Interesting analysis but I disagree with the methodology and, thus, the conclusion. There are downstream emissions in EV production - but those will diminish greatly over time. American Lithium producers are already focused on emission-free, geothermal extraction and production in Imperial County, Calif. which, if successful, would be a strong model for others. The U.S. Department of Energy is investing heavily in battery recycling, too, so that also reduces downstream emissions by eliminating the need to re-do the lithium and graphite production process from scratch. As well, EV charging companies like Electrify America and EVgo are investing in production of one unit of renewable energy for each unit of electricity they use to charge EVs, so investment in Electric Vehicles also becomes a major, new investment in renewables. Once you factor all of these points into a methodology, it changes the result.
Greetings. Thanks for the feedback. I think I address this in the last section. Here are key excerpts:
"Of course, there are promises of more efficient batteries, solid state batteries, less heavy batteries, less fire prone batteries and other improvements. Lots of work is being done towards that. But there is no proof these promises will materialize any time soon, and that the scale of the improvements will be sufficient."
"Actually, there are also lots of improvements that can still be made to ICE vehicles, to further reduce their consumption and footprint."
Yes and that's great - good points. I just disagree and believe, with the massive public and private sector investments (hundreds of billions of dollars now, today), it's not just a "down the road" thing. The production of renewable energy - paid for by the EV ecosystem I mentioned - is real and quantifiable right now, today. It's tangible. It's hundreds of GWh a year in the U.S. alone. But it's not in any methodology that reaches your conclusion. Again, I think you did a lot of interesting work and it's worthwhile to consider I just disagree.
Another consideration is that 75% of Americans buy a used car. With the average used car age of 12.5 years old, that puts many electrics at requiring a new battery by then. Very few car buyers will thus purchase an electric at 12.5 years. So this limits the sale of electrics as only brand new cars, and the market then would limit electrics to the 25% who do buy new. Of course as always, new battery technology could change this. To sum up, with current technology probably only 10-15% of new car buyers will ever buy electric, so what have we gained?
Do you have any sources for the used car numbers?
I've read it in the media many times.
I Googled it, and many sources confirm those figures. I have a friend in the automobile industry, he says that in 10-15 years when the current crop of electric cars will need battery replacement, that will be the end of the electric car industry. Of course, if new battery technology comes along, that could change. I think the battery life has to be 20 years for electric cars to be sustainable, and participate in the used car market.
Hi. I have made an addition to the article, to cover the point you made regarding the secondhand market, in this section: https://covexit.substack.com/i/136802920/a-straightforward-conclusion
Thanks, I believe it's a valid point, using logic and reasoning, who would purchase an electric car if they suspected the battery could die soon? And we know that no dealer would warranty a car like that.
Whether we like it or not the agenda is to push EVs on us. The horse has already bolted. In Australia with the biggest selling sedan now, Tesla. Have you noticed the price of fuel and cars? This will continue to make it difficult for people to drive cars—and that is the point. Only the well off will be able to buy EVs.
Of course this is based on a premise pushed by the globalists and politicians, that we are in the midst of catastrophic “climate change”. The data does not bear this out as severe storms have not increased the past 100 years and deaths from weather-related events are way down. Atmospheric physicists and climatologists like Judith Curry and Richard Lindzen point this out repeatedly, and the fact that average temperatures are skewed by the Urban Heat Island Effect.
One other factor: global population will start declining later this century due to rapidly declining birth rates which means less energy consumption. The same way that we turned our world upside down with Covid policies will happen with the push to net zero,
It’s NOT gonna happen - not enough minerals on earth 🌏